Couche-Tard may have moved on from buying Ampol two years ago, but analysts at Macquarie believe that the Australian listed fuel refiner and retailer still remains a target.
In a research note, Macquarie said Ampol’s Z Energy acquisition makes it more attractive to a buyer looking for exposure to the Australia and New Zealand fuels and convenience market.
Canada’s Couche-Tard made an $8.8bn bid for Ampol, but abandoned its pursuit at the onset of the global pandemic.
“Ampol received multiple takeover bids in 2020 and we believe that the acquisition could make it increasingly attractive to any buyer looking for a dominant customer-facing Australia and New Zealand fuels and convenience portfolio with irreplicable infrastructure assets,” Macquarie said in its research.
Ampol purchased New Zealand’s largest fuel retailer Z Energy last year for $NZ2bn and Macquarie said it was more than 20 per cent accretive from a free cash flow perspective.
The acquisition added 481 sites across Z Energy and Caltex New Zealand, taking Ampol’s portfolio to 25 billion litres of fuel sales and provides it with supply chain synergies, the largest component of deal synergies of between $NZ60m and $NZ80m per annum.
Macquarie says Ampol will now focus on debt reduction in the near term, particularly given high oil prices have materially increased working capital.
Based on this, they said they assumed bottom-end dividend payout of 50 per cent for the half year.
Once Ampol’s balance sheet returns to comfortable levels, they expected Ampol to return to share buy backs or bolt on acquisitions in the future energy space.
Extracted from The Australian