Brent crude slipped below US$90 a barrel on 10 November for the first time since August, but the US Energy Information Administration and the major banks still expect it to average around US$100 through December. For a forecourt operator heading into the busiest weeks of the year, the barrel matters less for what it does to the board than for what it does to the customer walking in.
The fall
Brent touched US$89.16 on 10 November before settling at US$91.49, CNBC reported, after President Donald Trump said the war with Iran could end “fairly soon”. ING strategists said the market was unwinding part of the geopolitical risk premium as Gulf flows recovered and reports suggested Iran might soften its position on the Strait of Hormuz. The relief was partial. Brent futures were back above US$95 within two days.
What forecasters expect for December
The EIA’s November outlook, released on 10 November, puts Brent at about US$100 for November and December, a 2026 average of US$97, and an easing to US$86 in 2027. The EIA notes its inputs were locked on 5 November, before the latest selloff. Goldman Sachs lifted its December forecast to US$105 earlier this month, citing risks to physical supply. ANZ expects Brent to finish the year at US$105. Not everyone sees a deal coming either. FGE chairman Fereidun Fesharaki told CNBC the gap between Washington and Tehran “cannot be bridged”.
The consensus, then, is a lower and calmer Christmas than the peaks of March and April, but not a cheap one. The range is still wide.
The customer at the counter
Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment fell 2.7 per cent to 78.2 in November, its lowest since late 2022. Westpac’s Matthew Hassan named petrol prices pushing towards $2.40 a litre, inflation at 4.3 per cent and a cash rate of 4.85 per cent as the drivers. Westpac also found Christmas spending plans tightening, particularly among mortgage holders.
Where the wallet goes
Commonwealth Bank data released this week shows how fuel crowds out other spending. Senior economist Ashwin Clarke said petrol’s share of household spending “has continued to be elevated, likely weighing on households’ ability to spend on other goods and services”. Regional Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania have felt it most. Spending on events, recreation and eating out has held up, and CBA expects a holiday splurge before households cut back. “Households may prefer to splurge for the holiday season, before cutting back next year,” Clarke said.
What a calmer barrel changes on the forecourt
Every cent that comes off the weekly fuel bill is a cent a household can spend somewhere else, and a convenience store is one of the first places it lands. Calmer prices also mean a calmer console. There are fewer complaints about the board, fewer customers filling to $20 and going, and more people willing to load up the car for a road trip. Lower diesel also flows through to freight. Carrier and supplier fuel levies are typically reset monthly, so a sustained drop should start showing on delivered costs within a billing cycle or two.
For independent operators
Plan Christmas on the forecasts, not on one good week. The banks and the EIA have December near US$100 to US$105, and one headline out of the Gulf can move that in a day. The upside is in the shop. Regional households have carried the heaviest fuel load this year, and if pressure eases they’re the ones most likely to hit the road over the holidays. Range road trip lines, drinks and ice accordingly, and roster for it.