A leading energy company has projected that the demand for petrol stations will remain high in Australia until the 2030s, even after some countries have banned fossil fuel vehicle sales. Ampol, in its 2023 Climate Report, foresees a significant increase in electric car sales in Australia from 2025, with electric vehicles becoming the dominant form of transportation by 2050.
Experts have offered differing views on the report. Some emphasize the need for ambitious transport policies to align with global trends, while others criticize the predictions as “self-serving.”
The Ampol report, which covers the period between May 2021 and 2023, examined Australia’s transport sector through climate modelling. It anticipates that traditional fuel demand will remain robust in the coming years due to the average car ownership period of 10 years in Australia and 14 years in New Zealand. However, it also projects a gradual rise in electric car ownership starting from 2025, ultimately leading to electric vehicles dominating the market by 2050. For long-haul trucks and aviation, renewable fuels will be necessary until hydrogen becomes economically viable.
Ampol’s CEO, Matt Halliday, acknowledges the uncertainty in the transition to low-emission transport, requiring a flexible and pragmatic approach in response to evolving markets.
To support the shift, Ampol has committed to deploying 300 vehicle-charging points in Australia by 2024. Greenpeace Australia Pacific, however, criticizes the company’s projections as out of touch with reality, citing alternative forecasts, such as the CSIRO’s expectation of electric cars constituting 60% of all vehicles by the early 2040s.
Swinburne University’s future urban mobility professor, Hussein Dia, stresses the importance of introducing a competitive fuel-efficiency standard in Australia. He notes that demand for electric vehicles is growing, with more consumers leaning towards alternatives to traditional cars.
While some countries have set targets to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030 onwards, Australia’s trajectory remains uncertain, and its progress will depend on policy decisions and market developments in the coming years.
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