The question in Australian fuel retail is shifting from what diesel costs to whether uncontracted buyers can get it at all. Independent distributors report being refused their usual spot volumes at east coast terminals, Canberra has extended its relaxed stockholding settings to 31 January 2027, and a proposed United States ban on diesel exports has drawn a warning of rationing within weeks.
The price backdrop
The Australian Institute of Petroleum’s report for the week ending 20 September put the national average retail diesel price at 273.6 cents a litre and the terminal gate price at 259.6 cents, up from 245.6 cents the week before. Singapore Gasoil, which drives around 95 per cent of the wholesale price, averaged 170.5 cents a litre in Australian terms against a 12 month average of 117.6 cents. Retail diesel has risen every week since 23 August, when it was 248.3 cents, according to AIP figures reported by the ABC. Unleaded averaged 227.3 cents, and the RACQ has reported Queensland sites above $2.90 for diesel.
Reuters reported Brent settled at US$108.75 a barrel on 15 September, its highest close since 19 May, after Houthi attacks shut Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. The pipeline has restarted and the ABC reported Brent near US$98 on 23 September, still well above the pre-war average of around US$72. NRMA’s Peter Khoury told the ABC that global falls take up to 10 days to reach the pump.
The United States export question
President Donald Trump told reporters at the United Nations on 22 September (US time) that he had called for a halt to US diesel exports, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration was examining whether a full or partial ban was feasible, the ABC reported. US diesel has passed US$6.50 a gallon, a record, and the country exports roughly 1.3 million barrels a day, about a quarter of its refining output. The Hill reported the next day that the White House said it was not preparing a 90 day ban, so the position is unsettled.
Australia does not import diesel from the United States, but the market it buys from does. MST Marquee’s Saul Kavonic told the ABC on 24 September that Australia is the world’s largest diesel importer in absolute terms, around 1 per cent of global fuel demand but 10 per cent of seaborne diesel imports. If a severe US ban proceeded, he said, Australia could face diesel above $4 a litre and rationing “in a matter of weeks”, with the government potentially moving to the stages of the National Fuel Security Plan that direct supply.
The stockholding settings
On 19 September Energy Minister Chris Bowen extended the temporary 20 per cent reduction in the baseline Minimum Stockholding Obligation for petrol and diesel until 31 January 2027. The concession, in place since March, lets suppliers hold less in reserve if they commit to delivering more into the domestic market and prioritising regional supply. Australia remains at level 2 of the National Fuel Security Plan. The longer term response is the $3.2 billion Australian Fuel Security Reserve, a government owned reserve Mr Bowen has put at a billion litres, and a lift in the MSO to 50 days of diesel and jet fuel.
The easing frees fuel that would otherwise sit in tanks, but it thins the buffer behind the headline stock days. Mr Bowen said on 19 September that Australia held 31 days of diesel, one fewer than the week before. The analyst site Crude Oil Peak estimates that of the 2,853 million litres reported for 15 September only around 2,054 million litres was onshore, below the MSO threshold of 2,225 million litres, with the rest on ships inside the exclusive economic zone. That is an estimate, not an official figure, but it fits what distributors describe at the terminal.
The allocation order
Nine’s mastheads reported on 16 September that several small distributors had been told they could not draw their usual spot volumes at Sydney, Brisbane and Newcastle. Westlink Petroleum’s Danny Kreutzer said he was getting some product from United Petroleum but not his normal volume, and that United “would be making sure they have plenty for their own service stations”. United chief executive David Szymczak said fuel was not being deliberately restricted and pointed to maintenance at Vopak’s Port Botany terminal. Mr Bowen’s office said spot sales were a commercial matter for companies.
Nobody publishes an allocation policy, but the sequence when stock tightens is not hard to infer, and Mr Bowen described it in March: majors were “meeting their contractual obligations to those who have ordered diesel in advance” while struggling with extra spot orders. Supply flows first to a wholesaler’s own network, then to branded sites on contract, then to whatever spot volume is left. That is the gap in the MSO settings: the concession requires suppliers to push fuel into the domestic market, but it does not say to whom.
Heavy vehicle pressure
Australian Trucking Association chair Mark Parry said on 21 September that retail diesel exceeded 270 cents a litre the previous week, and backed the Coalition’s proposal to halve excise and zero the heavy vehicle road user charge when Brent averages above US$100. The ATA is also asking the Fair Work Commission to switch the road transport fuel cost recovery order back on. Its obligations lapsed in June when the diesel terminal gate price fell below $2.00; it was back at 239.7 cents by late August. The Commission hears the matter on 28 September.
What it means for independents
If you buy spot or unbranded, talk to your supplier now about allocation and contract terms, ahead of the harvest and holiday demand the government’s own release anticipates. Ask what volume is committed, on what notice, and on what pricing basis. Check dip data daily against deliveries and watch lead times; a delivery that slips from two days to four is the first sign allocation has changed. The position may move quickly if the United States acts on exports.
Information current as at 25 September 2026.