The chairman of Chevron has warned that global fuel prices are likely to climb through June and July, as the temporary factors holding them down wear off. For operators planning pricing and stock through the back half of the year, the forecast is the part of his comments worth paying attention to.
Speaking at an investor summit in New York, Michael Wirth said the price impact of the Middle East conflict had been muted so far by two things: a global surplus of oil and gas that existed before the conflict, and the release of fuel from strategic reserves in several countries, including the United States. He described both as temporary shock absorbers.
Wirth said the pressure would flow through more directly over the coming weeks, with more upward pressure expected as the market moves into June and certainly July. He estimated the conflict had removed around 13 per cent of global oil and gas supply.
Why the timing matters
The forecast lands at a sensitive moment for Australian operators. The halved fuel excise is legislated to expire on 30 June, and the federal government has not yet confirmed whether it will be extended. If the excise reverts to its full rate on 1 July at the same time as global prices are climbing, operators face two upward pressures on pump prices arriving together.
That combination is worth planning around now. Stock bought in late June at the lower excise rate will sell into a market where both the tax and the underlying wholesale price may be rising. The pricing transition through the first week of July could be sharper than a single excise change alone would suggest.
Reading the forecast with caution
Wirth’s comments came with a clear commercial frame. He was explaining to investors why Chevron sees better returns elsewhere than in new Australian supply projects, and his remarks on Australian policy sit alongside that investment case. A major oil producer talking up future price pressure is not a neutral observer.
That said, the underlying mechanics he describes are real. Strategic reserve releases and a pre-conflict surplus have cushioned prices. Those buffers are finite. The northern hemisphere summer driving season, which runs through June, July, and August, draws on the same global supply pool Australia imports from. The direction of his forecast is consistent with the broader supply picture, even if the precise timing is uncertain.
What to do
The practical response is the same regardless of whether Wirth’s timing proves exact. Watch the weekly terminal gate price movements through June. Plan your stock and pricing for a scenario where excise and wholesale costs rise together in early July. And keep customer communication ready for a sharper than usual pump price transition.
The forecast is one input, not a certainty. But the direction is worth taking seriously.