Viva Energy expects production at its Geelong refinery to return to more than 90 per cent of capacity in June, around six weeks from the company’s 5 May update. Until then, the refinery is running at reduced output: about 80 per cent of capacity for diesel and jet fuel, and about 60 per cent for petrol.
The reduction is driven by the Residue Catalytic Cracking Unit, which has been offline since the 15 April fire at the site. The RCCU is the unit that converts heavier crude fractions into petrol and other higher value products, which is why petrol output has dropped further than diesel and jet during the outage. Repairs to the impacted Alkylation unit are continuing with no impediments identified, and Viva says the inspection and restart sequence is progressing on plan.
What the numbers mean in context
Geelong supplies around 50 per cent of Victoria’s fuel and roughly 10 per cent of Australia’s total fuel demand. With one of two domestic refineries running at reduced output, the gap is being closed by imports rather than domestic production.
The supply task force data published this week shows around 4 billion litres of crude, diesel, jet, and petrol scheduled to arrive from overseas in the next four weeks. Strategic Reserve powers have secured over 450 million litres of additional diesel and 100 million litres of additional jet fuel. The minimum stockholding obligation has been temporarily reduced by 20 per cent to release another 762 million litres into the market.
The combination is working. National diesel reserves sat at 33 days as at 26 April, up from 31 days the week before. Petrol reserves were at 44 days.
The six-week window
The most useful framing is to treat the period from now to mid-June as a managed reduction rather than a shortage. Domestic refining capacity is constrained but not absent. Imports are flowing. Reserves are stable or improving. Retail availability has tightened in regional areas but the national picture is holding.
That said, the next six weeks carry a few specific watch points.
Petrol is the tighter grade for Geelong specifically. With the refinery’s petrol output at 60 per cent of capacity and Asian refineries still working through their post-conflict recovery, the petrol supply chain has less slack than diesel.
European demand spikes for the northern summer (June, July, and August) start drawing on the same regional supply pool that Australia is importing from. The timing overlaps with the Geelong restart, which is mostly helpful, but any delay to the RCCU return pushes the import dependency further into a tighter window.
Ampol has delayed its Lytton refinery major maintenance program from early June to early August, releasing an additional 300 million litres of fuel into the market over that period. That deferral is doing real work in the supply picture and is one of the reasons reserves have stabilised. If Lytton hits its August window with Geelong fully back online, the supply pressure should ease materially.
The trigger to watch
The cleanest signal that the recovery is on track is the weekly minimum stockholding obligation data. Reserves above 30 days for diesel and 40 days for petrol are the comfortable range. The April trajectory has been positive on both. Any sustained reversal would be the first indicator that the import flow isn’t keeping pace with domestic consumption.
The other signal worth tracking is terminal gate. Diesel TGP at $2.27 to $2.28 across Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane on 1 May represents a meaningful easing from the post-conflict peak. If TGP starts climbing again before the Geelong restart, the supply pressure has reasserted.
The broader picture
The federal government’s messaging is that prices will remain elevated for a significant period. The HVIA’s read is that this means well into 2027. The crisis phase of the past three months has eased, but the structural picture (two domestic refineries, long import supply chains, exposure to Middle East shipping routes) hasn’t changed.
For now, the Geelong update is good news. The 5 May statement is the most positive read on supply since the fire. Subject to inspection findings, the RCCU and associated units are on track for June, and the Australian fuel supply system has demonstrated it can absorb a major refinery reduction with reserves intact.
The next critical milestone is the RCCU restart itself. If that lands inside the six-week window without further complication, the second half of June starts to look notably more comfortable than the first half.